Forensic Statistical Analysis Casts Doubt on Credibility of Transplant Reform in China

A new study of China’s public organ donation program uses forensic statistical methods on key deceased organ donation data sets from 2010 to 2018 to determine whether the claimed successes of China’s transplant reforms were based on “sound and credible accretive data” derived from real organ donations and transplantation activity in China or on artificially manufactured data.

The analysis was prompted by China’s ongoing lack of transparency regarding official transplant data, the regime’s continued attempts to whitewash its transplant system by providing conflicting messages to the international community, and the fact that large monetary incentives overshadow the transplant landscape in China.

The researchers found that the data presented by the China Organ Transplant Response System (COTRS) and the Chinese Red Cross follow a precise quadratic formula, suggesting that the two data sets were manufactured and manipulated by human direction rather than by chance. Some datasets were contradictory or implausible, suggesting that they were manipulated to conform to predetermined quotas. The authors conclude that transplant data sets were indeed systematically falsified and manipulated to establish fixed goals.

This article, currently published as a preprint, is undergoing peer-review pending its formal publication in a medical journal.